Who isn’t in?
Last week I promised….”In next week’s edition we will have a much clearer picture of who has punched their ticket for the 2026 tournament. “
Ah, I should not have been so confident…turns out, maybe I should not be prognosticating about qualifying after this embarrassing result on the “October Qualifying quiz”
Of the 16 spots EUFA has for the 26 World Cup, only one has been confirmed.
As of this morning, October 16, here is the list of qualified teams:
Hosts: Canada, Mexico, USA
Asia: Australia, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Uzbekistan
Africa: Algeria, Cape Verde, Egypt, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Morocco, Senegal, South Africa, Tunisia
Europe: England
Oceania: New Zealand
South America: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Uruguay
This list will not change until mid November, when we will revisit the process and update the 42 teams that gain automatic tickets to the big dance.
A few fun stories you may have missed from the October International Break.
my vote is Faroe Islands beating Czechia, although the Iceland/France result stung the most…
Follow the bouncing ball…
I am unsure why a new ball needs to be designed for each World Cup, other than, well, you know $$$$$$. Before we discuss the specifics of this year’s ball…major kudos to whoever brought this idea to the marketing meeting.
OK, onto the ball. This article “Surprising math and physics behind the 2026 Trionda World Cup ball” is a geeked out deep dive into this year’s official ball. Here are some of my takeaways:
Adidas has revealed the new Trionda — the official match ball for the 2026 World Cup — and it’s unlike anything we’ve seen before. Instead of the familiar 32-panel pattern or even the 14 or 8-panel balls from recent tournaments, this one uses just four curved panels.
The design is based on a tetrahedron, one of the simplest geometric solids, reshaped and curved to form something close to a perfect sphere. The goal is to make the surface smoother, the seams shorter, and the performance more consistent. All sounds good…but how will it fly?
But that’s also where the concern comes in. Fewer panels mean fewer seams, which can affect how air flows around the ball — and that changes its flight behavior. Some physicists warn that this could reintroduce the same unpredictable “knuckleball” effect players complained about with the 2010 Jabulani.
For now, the physics team behind the Trionda insists that extensive testing and the new surface texture will ensure a stable, predictable ball. Still, until it’s out on the pitch, players and goalkeepers alike will be watching closely — because as we’ve seen before, the math of a soccer ball can decide matches.
And then there’s what’s inside. The Trionda carries an upgraded inertial measurement unit (IMU) sensor — the same core tech first used in the 2022 Al Rihla ball. This sensor captures real-time data on ball position, speed, and impact, transmitting it to the VAR system and officials to help confirm tight offside calls or detect touches that cameras might miss.
The 2022 version already played a key role in semi-automated offside decisions, but the 2026 sensor is reportedly more precise and energy-efficient, using a rechargeable system instead of single-use batteries. I cannot figure out how the weight of that little device inside doesn’t alter the spin?
Tech continues to get smaller, faster and more intertwined in every aspect of our lives. Every kick, pass, and spin will feed into the most tech-assisted tournament yet. Whether that makes play fairer, or just more complicated, remains to be seen.
How can I just let you walk away…
OK, showing my age…as I was thinking about this article and discussion on odds, the Phil Collins classic instantly popped into my head.
In 2025, there are many ways to play the odds and bet on a future event. At the turn of the century, this was restricted to sports books in actual casinos in a handful of locations. In the 25 years since, gambling and prediction markets are seemingly everywhere.
Traditional Sports Betting
According to VegasInsider.com - here are the top 10 options to win next year’s tournament.
France +600(bet $100 and win $700)
Spain +600
Brazil +600
England +700
Portugal +1600
Uruguay +3300
Argentina +1000
Germany +1000
Netherlands +2000
Italy +2000
Belgium +3300
Colombia +4000
USA +5000
Oddschecker.com aggregates dozens of betting sites to give you a sense how many different sports books are predicting the tournament.
It isn’t any real surprise that the early money is on France, Spain, England and Brazil.
Over the past several years, “betting” has been turned into “predicting” with various websites that now allow you to wage money on your predictions. A huge player in this field is Polymarket.com. As of the morning of October 16, 2025, the list of teams predicted to win in 2026 mirrors the previous lists although Spain is gaining momentum.
Contrary to the last time the World Cup was held in North America, more people than ever have access to and will wager money on this year’s World Cup tournament.
We will check in on these predictions a few times of the coming months.
Coming up next week:
- All the different ways teams can still punch a ticket to WC26
- Host City Deep Dive - Dallas
- Ballon D’Or and the World Cup
If you have any ideas that you would like to me include in future editions, please drop me a line at [email protected]
The man behind the curtain:
Oh, hi — I’m Eric, a football fan and tech enthusiast who loves experimenting with new ideas and tools to build things people actually need (and hopefully enjoy).
I’m an American expat living in France — an unabashed Mbappé and Bleu-Blanc-Rouge 🇫🇷 supporter, excited to see if France can extend their World Cup success… though definitely not looking forward to those 3 a.m. kickoffs